Should we follow US? State capitalism works: Tony Tan

Asian banks have a "once in a lifetime" opportunity of taking a bigger share of the global banking market and perhaps even overtake some of the big Western banks, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) deputy chairman Tony Tan tells the Financial Times at the World Economic Forum in Davos. (The Financial Times wrongly calls him chairman: that position is held by Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.)

You can see him being interviewed by Gillian Tett of the Financial Times here.

Here are some excerpts from the interview (here in full):

“For the GIC, we see no lack of opportunities in the developing world,” he said.

“I think Asian countries will now look again at whether we want to be (following the US),” he said, pointing out that even in the US there was a rethink of laisser faire economics. “State capitalism, interference by the state, has served (some countries) well,” he said.

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Grin and bear it — for a long time

In the current recession, here's a sunny classic that's depression-proof: Dean Martin singing King of the Road, written by Roger Miller and a hit for him in 1965. One needs such tonics with the US headed into its worst recession since 1982, according to the Financial Times, and sagging Asian economies not very likely to get any lift from China.The Economist says:

According to the Asian Development Bank, 60 percent of Asia’s exports (not including Japan’s) still go to America, the European Union and Japan. A decline of one percentage point in America’s growth rate, the bank calculates, knocks 0.3 percentage points off Asia’s. That may be optimistic.

This could be the Big Bear, which prowls into the market maybe once in a generation and hangs around for a long time, says the Economist's Buttonwood column:

It is beginning to look as if we are in the middle of another of those great phases, what commentators call a secular, as opposed to a cyclical, bear market. Broadly speaking, the 20th century can be divided into six phases; bear markets from 1901-21, 1929-49 and 1965-82 and bull runs from 1921-29, 1949-65 and 1982-2000.

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Indo-US deal despite 13 Democrat ‘no’ votes

Hurrah! The US Senate has approved the Indo-US nuclear deal, which now only has to be signed by its architect, President George Bush. All three senators in the presidential race — Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden — voted for the deal.

It only goes to show America does not forget its friends that the agreement was passed just before the Senate took up the much more pressing issue of the US economy and voted for a revised $700 billion bailout plan.

The Indo-US agreement was supported by 86 of the 100 US senators. All the 13 senators who voted against the agreement are Democrats, including Tom Harkin, from Iowa. He was rumoured to have been vetted by Omaha, who eventually picked Biden as his running mate. Senator Edward Kennedy, undergoing treatment for cancer, did not vote. 

The New York Times has the full roll call showing how each senator voted. 

Why deal important

Though Indian nationalists and communists opposed the agreement saying it was a sellout to the US, India should be happy that President Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh succeeded in reaching the agreement. The BBC explains its significance:

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Keeping the communists happy

Pratibha Patil was elected India’s first woman president by the legislators (ordinary citizens don’t get to vote). But she wasn’t the first choice of the ruling Congress party.
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi chose the 72-year-old political veteran only after the leftists (read:
communists) objected to other candidates, said the BBC.

The Congress government can’t ignore the communists.

It’s somewhat like the US relationship with China. Their
economies have become so interdependent neither can ignore the other. From
Apple to Boeing, almost every US multinational uses components made in China.
And both countries gain. China is booming, using some of the dollars earned to buy
US Treasury bonds, while US consumers benefit from the low prices of Chinese
goods.

A similar relationship has sprung up between the Congress
party and the communists. They may jockey for power in some of the Indian states,
just as the US and China have their differences, notably over Taiwan. But they have common interests. The Congress
party has a socialist heritage and under Indira Gandhi was close to the
Soviets.

Now Congress heads a coalition government in Delhi. It could
not form a government on its own, having won only 145 seats in the last general
election in 2004. The Lok Sabha, or the Indian House of Representatives, has
545 seats. The traditionally pro-Beijing Marxists, who won 43 seats, and the
pro-Russian Communist Party of India, which won 10, did not join the coalition
government but support the Congress. They can’t support the nationalist
right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party, which won 138 seats.

Congress naturally has to keep its allies happy. And that includes
the communists, who have gained influence disproportionate to their power.

The
communists are strong in only three of the 28 Indian states: Kerala, Tripura
and West Bengal. Yet they have their say on every major issue from education to
the choice of a president.

Congress, of course, has to consult even smaller fry –
regional parties and the like. And it
did not lose anything by choosing Patil as president. After all, she
is a Congress party member and a friend of the Gandhis. Still, if she got the job because the communists
objected to other Congress candidates, then it was no different from the tail wagging the dog.

Singaporeans almost as rich as Americans and Japanese

The US, Britain and Japan are three of the world’s richest countries. The US has a per capita wealth of $143,727, according to a United Nations survey based on data from the year 2000. But Singapore is not far behind with a personal per capita wealth of $113,631. In fact, Singapore ranked sixth among the 18 countries for which complete houshold balance sheets were available, right behind the Netherlands (fourth) with a per capita wealth of at $120,086 and Italy (fifth) with $119,704.

In comparison, Australia has a per capita wealth of $90,906, Canada, $89,252, China $11,267, Taiwan $100,009, Denmark $66,191, Finland $38,754, France $93,729, Germany $89,871, India $6,513, Indonesia $7,973, New Zealand $55,823, Poland $24,654, South Africa $16,266, Spain $92,253, Portugal $53,357 and the Czech Republic 32,431. (Not all these countries’ complete houshold balance sheets were available.)

There is greater concentration of wealth in the US, home to 37 per cent of the world’s richest individuals, than in Japan, which accounts for 27 per cent. I did not come across corresponding figures for Singapore. Still, the survey makes interesting reading.

According to the survey, the world’s richest 2 per cent of the adults own more than half of all household wealth. Anyone who wants to see the complete survey can download the PDF file from the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research website.   

Woody Guthrie and his land

This land is your land, this land is my land
From the Redwood Forest to the New York Island
The Canadian mountain to the Gulf Stream waters
This land is made for you and me.
As I go walking this ribbon of highway
I see above me this endless skyway
And all around me the wind keeps saying:
This land is made for you and me.
I roam and I ramble and I follow my footsteps
Till I come to the sands of her mineral desert
The mist is lifting and the voice is saying:
This land is made for you and me.
Where the wind is blowing I go a strolling
The wheat field waving and the dust a rolling
The fog is lifting and the wind is saying:
This land is made for you and me.
Nobody living can ever stop me
As I go walking my freedom highway
Nobody living can make me turn back
This land is made for you and me.
– Woody Guthrie, This Land Is Your Land

God bless America on this Fourth of July.

No, it’s not my land, but like countless others around the world, I find a lot to admire about America.

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Pact be praised

Three cheers for the 10-year defence pact just signed between India and the USA. It’s a remarkable turnaround from the Cold War era. Only yesterday the Guardian recalled how bad the relationship was between Indira Gandhi and President Nixon. He even urged the Chinese to use military force to intimidate India from developing nuclear weapons, but the Chinese declined, said the Guardian. India then carried out its first atomic bomb explosion in 1974, the same year that Nixon was brought down by the Watergate scandal. By then India was in the Soviet camp, bound by the 20-year Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation signed in 1971.

How things have changed.

The International Herald Tribune said: "Many (Indian) analysts interpret the recent U.S. courtship of India as part of a wider goal of containing the growing power and influence of India’s Asian rival, China."

It’s true that China has indicated it will support India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council but the two countries have an unresolved border dispute and memories linger of the 1962 war.

The USA also shares concerns about China. And this treaty may be the result of such uneasiness.

Lalit Mansingh, India’s foreign secretary between 1999 and 2001 who then served as ambassador to Washington until last year, expressed this view in the International Herald Tribune.

"China is like the ghost at the banquet — an unspoken presence that no one wants to talk about," he said. "No one in Washington or Delhi would admit that this has anything to do with China. But the U.S. neocons say that the long-term threat to the U.S. can only be from China, and India also realizes that it has a neighbor with whom it has border disputes, whose economic and military growth is greater than its own."

Whatever may be the reason, it’s good to see India and the USA drawing closer together. After all, they are two of the biggest democracies in the world.

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