Freefall: The world according to Joseph Stiglitz

Singapore is, by common consent, one of the most open economies in the world. Yet, more than 80 per cent of the Singaporeans live in public housing, the buses and trains are run by two government-linked companies, the mainstream media really state media – the television stations owned outright by a state investment firm, the print monopoly traditionally headed by former government ministers or officials – and many of the top local companies are also linked to the government.

And this economic model has worked very well for Singapore.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, Joseph Stiglitz says in his book, Freefall:

Government has played an especially large role in the highly successful economies of East Asia… Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, and a host of other countries followed and adapted Japan's (government-led growth) strategy and saw per capita incomes increase eightfold in a quarter century.

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Foreigners wager more on Singapore than locals

Four out of five dollars invested in or earmarked for business in Singapore is foreign money.

Foreign investors accounted for S$46.8 billion (about $34.2 billion) of the S$57.3 billion investment commitments made in the manufacturing and service industries between 2006 and 2009. Local investors accounted for just about S$10 billion.

In 2008, local investors accounted for only S$1.8 billion against more than S$16 billion from foreigners. And it has been no different this year, with only S$1.3 billion from locals against more than S$6.2 billion from foreigners. Americans have committed nearly S$2.7 billion this year, and the Europeans nearly S$2.8 billion. They have been the biggest investors every year, as you can see from this chart going back to 2006.

Singapore investment commitments by local foreigners between 2006 and 2009

 

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Singapore GDP higher than before recession

Singapore GDP from second quarter of 2008 to second quarter of 2010

The Singapore economy has not only recovered from the recession but has grown bigger than it was before. The gross domestic product totalled S$72.6 billion (about $53.3 billion) in the second quarter of this year, considerably more than it was during the same period last year (S$61.1 billion) and the second quarter of 2008 (S$62.2 billion). That was before the recession, which began in October 2008. All the GDP figures are at 2005 market prices.

Manufacturing continues to play the biggest role in the economy followed by wholesale and retail trade, financial services and business services. See the next chart showing the performance of each industry.

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Singapore GDP up 13.1%: Now 7-9% growth forecast

A buoyant first quarter lifted Singapore's economic prospects higher than forecast only two months ago.

The Singapore economy is now expected to grow by 7 to 9 per cent this year. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), which in February predicted 4.5 to 6.5 per cent growth this year, raised its forecast today following what it called "exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter of 2010" .

Advance estimates indicate 13.1 per cent growth in the first quarter compared to a year ago.

Manufacturing output more than doubled since the last quarter while the construction sector grew by 11.3 per cent and services by 8.4 per cent from a year ago.

The ministry now forecasts 2.5 to 3.5 per cent inflation this year, up from 2 to 3 per cent predicted earlier.

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China visitors fell below 1m in Singapore in 2009

Singapore saw a sharp drop in visitors from China in 2009 when its exports to China exceeded imports from there for the first time in several years. The number of mainland visitors fell from more than a million in 2008 to about 936,700 in 2009.

Singapore_visitor_arrivals

Mainland Chinese are still the second biggest group of visitors after those from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including Malaysians, Indonesians, Thais and Filipinos. Their numbers rose marginally from more than 3.57 million in 2008 to over 3.68 million in 2009.

Visitors from Australia, the third biggest group, dipped from more than 833,000 to 830,000.

Indians continued to make up the fourth biggest group, although their numbers fell from 778,000 to 725,500, according to the Economic Survey of Singapore 2009 released by the Ministry of  Trade and Industry yesterday.

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Singapore exports exceed imports from China

Singapore experienced the sharpest drop in trade last year since records began to kept in 1964, says the Economic Survey of Singapore 2009 released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry yesterday.

Singapore's total trade plunged 19 per cent to $747 billion in 2009, down from $928 billion in 2008. Trade declined with all top 10 trading partners: the European Union, Malaysia, China, America, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. 

But exports to China exceeded imports for the first time in several years.  I have included only figures for 2008 and 2009 in this chart because anything more would have made it difficult to read.

Singapore_exports_imports_2
One does not have to go beyond 2008 to understand the trading pattern with the other major partners. Imports exceed exports to America, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan while exports surpass imports from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Hong Kong. In fact, Singapore exports far more to Hong Kong than it imports from there. The sharpest drop has been in exports and imports from Malaysia, America and the European Union.

The Economic Survey says:

Singapore’s export recovery has in fact lagged the other East Asian economies, growing by just 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009, after four consecutive periods of double-digit declines.

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Singapore economy 2009: GDP and jobs

Construction was the only industry to post double-digit growth –16 per cent — when the Singapore economy shrank 2 per cent in the 2009 recession.

Business services also grew by 3.3 per cent. The only other (faintly) bright spot was information and communications, which grew an infinitesimal 0.8 per cent. Financial services didn't do too badly in the downturn, shrinking only 1.4 per cent.

The big dips came in two key sectors: manufacturing, which accounts for the biggest share of the gross domestic product, and the wholesale and retail trade, which contributes the second biggest share. Wholesale and retail shrank by 9.1 per cent and manufacturing by 4.1 per cent.

All the figures here are from the Economic Survey of 2009 released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry today.

SingaporeGDP_and_jobs2009

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SGD20.5b Resilience Package worked though only a fraction of GIC, Temasek losses

The Economic Survey of 2009, released today by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, notes how the government fought the recession.

The centrepiece of Budget 2009 was the 20.5 billion Singapore dollar (SGD20.5 billion) Resilience Package, it says.

The stimulus worked. Singapore is out of the recession with overall unemployment down to 2.1 per cent.

Employed_residents_by_indus

Among Singapore citizens and permanent residents, the  unemployment rate fell to 3 per cent from 5 per cent with an estimated 60,100 residents out of work in December 2009.

The SGD20.5 billion (about $14.5 billion) Resilience Package was not only effective but cost-effective. It was a shoestring operation compared with the business activities of the two Singapore sovereign wealth funds.

The survey mentions the SGD5.1 billion the government allocated to help preserve jobs for Singaporeans.

That was only a fraction of the 11 billion Swiss francs (about SGD14.2 billion) the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) invested in the Swiss bank, UBS.

GIC's paper losses on UBS alone could total about 7.85 billion Swiss francs — more than the entire outlay to protect jobs. GIC's UBS shares are now worth only about 3.15 billion Swiss francs, according to the Straits Times.

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Singapore most globalized, open to new ideas, but…

If you are in Singapore, you may have already read in the papers that Singapore is the world's most globalized economy and Hong Kong second.

May I draw your attention to something else?

Singapore is more open to new ideas and new technology than any other nation except the Irish and the Scandinavians.

However, Singapore's "level of globalization is likely to remain flat for several years as a result" of last year's recession, says the Globalization Index report. You can download the Economist Intelligence Unit report from Ernst and Young, which commissioned it.

See the chart showing the top 25 countries on the Globalization Index, which measures the world's 60 biggest economies according to their openness to trade, investment, new ideas and technology, labour movement and cultural integration with the rest of the world.

Globalization_index 

Singapore gets the highest marks for trade, second highest for labour and culture, and less than only Ireland, Sweden, Denmark and Finland for  technology.

America, home of Google, Apple and Microsoft, gets lower marks for technology for the same reason it does less well in trade.

The Globalization Index does not rank countries according to their share of the world trade, investment and technology industry.

Countries are ranked instead according to their trade, investment, technology, and labour movement relative to their own GDP.

Singapore's trade-to-GDP ratio was 443.2 in 2006-2008, according to the World Trade Organization. America's, in contrast, was only 28.7. (Hong Kong's was 406.5.)

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Straits Times’ GDP goof-up

How can Singapore's leading newspaper make elementary mistakes in economics? It goofed up on the very first day of the year in its report on the Prime Minister's New Year message.

In a sidebar on the front page, it reported:

Quarter on quarter, the Singapore economy grew by 3.5 per cent from October to December, according to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his New Year message for 2010.

Quarter on quarter, the Singapore did not grow by 3.5 per cent from October to December. On the contrary, it shrank 6.8 per cent, as the government announced today.

So where did the Straits Times get that figure from?

This is what the Prime Minister said in his New Year message:

Our fourth quarter growth is 3.5%, although for the whole year our growth is still negative, at -2.1%.

By that, he meant the economy had grown 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the same period the previous year.

But the Straits Times took it to mean the economy had grown 3.5 per cent since the previous quarter.

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