Singapore average earnings fall, not unemployment

Average earnings fell while there was no drop in unemployment in the second quarter of this year, according to the Singapore labour market survey released by the Manpower Ministry today.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rates remained unchanged at 2.2 per cent overall and 3.2 per cent for Singapore residents, said the report.

There were 84,400 unemployed residents in June 2010. About 16,500 of them have been out of work for more than six months.

Average nominal earnings fell from S$4,310 a month in January-March to S$3,819 a month in April-June.

Average real earnings fell from S$4,263 to S$3,733 as consumer prices rose. The consumer price index was up 3.1 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. (See the Singapore Statistics Department data here.)

Generally worst off were the 182,300 people in the hotels and restaurants business, with average nominal earnings of S$1,451 a month. See the tables below showing the average earnings and occupations of Singapore's three million working population.

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Singapore GDP up but growth likely to slow down, says MAS

The Singapore economy for the first time posted better quarterly results than last year, growing by 0.8 percent between July and September compared with the same period last year. The government now expects the economy to shrink by 2 to 2.5 percent this year, and not by 4 to 6 percent as previously forecast.

But the Monetary Authority of Singapore is not letting the Singapore dollar rise against other currencies because it does not expect growth to continue at the current rate. "Looking ahead, the economy is not expected to sustain the strong pace of expansion seen in Q2-Q3 2009," it says.

"Singapore’s key export markets, including for IT products, have yet to recover decisively," it adds, and therefore "GDP growth in 2010 is expected to be slower than in previous post-recession periods."

Indeed, Singapore's third quarter growth was lower than in the second quarter.

Third quarter GDP was up 14.9 percent over  the second quarter, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry's advance estimates. But that was lower than the second quarter growth when Singapore blitzed out of the recession by growing 22 percent over the first quarter.

The tables below show how badly the economy was hit before coming out of the recession in the second quarter. All the figures are from the Ministry of Trade and Industry press release. It says: "Growth was driven by the continued expansion of biomedical and electronics manufacturing output, and improvements in the trade-related and tourism sectors of the economy."

Percentage change over corresponding period last year.

 3Q084Q0820081Q092Q093Q09
Overall GDP0.0-4.21.1-9.5-3.20.8
Goods producing industries      
Manufacturing-11-10.7-4.1-24.2-1.18.3
Construction26.018.520.324.418.612.4
Services producing industries5.5-1.34.7-5.1-4.8-2.4

Quarter on quarter annualized growth, seasonally adjusted

 3Q084Q0820081Q092Q093Q09
Overall GDP-2.1-16.41.1-12.122.014.9
Goods producing industries      
Manufacturing-5.2-21.3-4.1-18.858.534.9
Construction23.510.320.39.632.7-0.6
Services producing industries-1.7-15.04.7-9.78.39.5

The ministry agrees with the Monetary Authority that "economic activity will probably remain below pre-crisis levels".

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