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Thursday, January 3, 2013 By Abhijit

Singapore’s close shave with recession

Singapore has been spared a widely feared recession. The government yesterday reported the economy grew 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with the third quarter, when the gross domestic product shrank 6.3 per cent. But look how narrowly Singapore averted a recession in the third quarter. The revised estimates put out by the ministry show the economy grew 0,2 per cent, and not 0.5 per cent in the second quarter as previously reported. Two straight quarters of negative growth would have meant the economy was in recession.

	2012 Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
GDP (quarter on quarter)	9.5	0.2	-6.3	1.8

Actually, the ministry initially reported the economy contracted 0.7 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. The ministry said so in this press release dated August 10, 2012.

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: gdp, gross domestic product, recession, singapore economy

Wednesday, January 2, 2013 By Abhijit

How Singapore averted recession

The Singapore economy grew 1.2 per cent in the 2012, averting a widely feared technical recession in the fourth quarter when the gross domestic product rose 1.8 per cent from the previous quarter. How? The answer is simple.

The hawker stall assistant, the salesgirl, the hotel cleaner, the delivery man, the property agent, the technician and, yes, the bankers collectively contribute more to the Singapore economy than the factory operators, construction workers and engineers. The city-state is becoming a service economy where “goods-producing industries”, including manufacturing and construction, account for just about one-third of the total gross domestic product.

Singapore 2011 GDP

This was their share of the 2011 GDP, and we will see the same pattern in earlier years and the first three quarters of 2012.

That is why there was no recession despite a continuing slump in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Manufacturing dropped for the third quarter in a row, down 10,8 per cent from the previous quarter, while construction fell for the second quarter, down 8.9 per cent. And yet the economy beat back recession on the back of a resurgent services sector. After falling two quarters in a row, the services sector gained 7 per cent. That was enough to avert a recession.

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: construction, gdp, gross domestic product, manufacturing, recession, services

Friday, January 13, 2012 By Abhijit

Singapore second freest economy: Heritage Foundation

Singapore is the second freest economy in the 2012 Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index after Hong Kong. Singapore stands out for having the lowest unemployment rate as well as the lowest government spending as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) among the top 10 countries on the Economic Freedom Index. (In the Asia Pacific region, government spending as a percentage of GDP is lower in Taiwan, ranked 18th on the Economic Freedom Index, and Indonesia, ranked 115th.) The 10 freest economies are

Hong Kong
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Switzerland
Canada
Chile
Mauritius
Ireland
United StatesContinue Reading

Filed Under: Singapore, World Today Tagged With: 2012, economic freedom index, gdp, government spending, gross domestic product, singapore, unemployment

Tuesday, January 3, 2012 By Abhijit

Singapore’s economic growth and population increase: Part II

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his New Year message the Singapore economy is expected to grow only 1 per cent to 3 per cent this year , down from 4.8 per cent last year, because the government is tightening the inflow of foreign workers. “Admitting fewer workers means forgoing business opportunities and slower growth,” he said. This chart shows Singapore’s economic performance together with its population growth from 2000 to 2011.

Singapore GDP and population growth

The figures are from the Singapore Department of Statistics website. The GDP figures are taken from this page and the population data from here and here. See the following table which shows how the total population has increased along with the number of Singapore citizens, permanent residents (PRs) and non-resident foreigners from 2005 to 2011. Continue Reading

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: citizens, economy, foreigners, gdp, non-resident, permanent residents, population, PR

Thursday, October 14, 2010 By Abhijit

Singapore economy hit by worst quarter in a year

Singapore’s sizzling growth in the first half of the year ended with the economy shrinking by nearly 20 per cent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. This is the worst quarterly performance in a year.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry is toughing it out, announcing today that “the Singapore economy remains on track to achieve the overall forecast of 13 to 15 per cent growth for the whole of 2010″. It said:

“Advance estimates showed that the economy expanded by 10.5 per cent in the third quarter compared with a year ago.”

Singapore GDP quarterly growth

But – here comes the rub – the economy contracted by 19.8 per cent compared with the previous quarter.

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: economy, gdp, gross domestic product

Friday, September 10, 2010 By Abhijit

Global rankings and how they are done

A country's ranking in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report depends largely on an executive opinion survey. If the business executives in one country rate its infrastructure, government institutions or education system highly, its score goes up in those categories. These are used to decide overall rankings.

Singapore is the world's third most competitive economy, according to this year's report, for the second year in a row. Switzerland remains No 1 while Sweden has moved up to second place. America, which slipped to second spot last year, is down to fourth place.

What these rankings reflect is business confidence in a country.

In Singapore, the business executives who took part in the survey were chosen with the help of the Economic Development Board. In some countries, they were chosen with the help of non-government bodies. The London School of Economics helped in Britain, the Confederation of Indian Industries in India.

Singapore excelled in those categories where the rankings were based on the executive opinion survey. The executives, chosen with the help of the Economic Development Board, gave it near-perfect scores for quality of education, public trust in politicians and several other categories.

From World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2010

(These charts from the Global Competitiveness Report are based not on the executive opinion survey but on other sources.)

Filed Under: Singapore, World Today Tagged With: america, economic development board, economy, education, executive opinion survey, gdp, global competitiveness report, judicial independence, life expectancy, per capita, purchasing power parity, rankings, sweden, switzerland, united states, world economic forum

Wednesday, September 8, 2010 By Abhijit

Freefall: The world according to Joseph Stiglitz

Singapore is, by common consent, one of the most open economies in the world. Yet, more than 80 per cent of the Singaporeans live in public housing, the buses and trains are run by two government-linked companies, the mainstream media really state media – the television stations owned outright by a state investment firm, the print monopoly traditionally headed by former government ministers or officials – and many of the top local companies are also linked to the government.

And this economic model has worked very well for Singapore.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, Joseph Stiglitz says in his book, Freefall:

Government has played an especially large role in the highly successful economies of East Asia… Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, and a host of other countries followed and adapted Japan's (government-led growth) strategy and saw per capita incomes increase eightfold in a quarter century.

Filed Under: Books, Singapore Tagged With: america, ben bernake, bhutan, deficit, deregulation, development, dollar, economy, education, export, freefall, gdp, global, gross domestic product, happiness, health, iceland, income gap, japan, job, joseph stiglitz, larry summers, obama, reagan, recession, reserve, robert rubin, roosevelt, stiglitz, surplus, timothy geithner, trade, united nations

Thursday, August 19, 2010 By Abhijit

Iraq war flashbacks as last US combat brigade exits

Remember Rageh Omaar, who reported from Baghdad for the BBC when the Iraq war began in 2003? This is how he reported the arrival of US forces in Baghdad and the toppling of Saddam's statue in April 2003. Here you can see President George W Bush claiming "Mission accomplished" aboard the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in early May 2003.

This is how the BBC showed Saddam Hussein's medical examination following his capture. And this is the CNN report on his execution. (I couldn't watch it).

All because of 9/11. This video shows the second plane hitting the Twin Towers of the World Trade Centre in New York. You can hear the newscasters gasp. What a terrible tragedy. I remember watching it on CNN and couldn't believe my eyes. It was like the end of the world.

As the last US combat brigade pulls out of Iraq, leaving behind more than 50,000 US soldiers in the country, here's a moment of remembrance:

Filed Under: World Today Tagged With: 9/11, afghanistan, baghdad, base, bbc, brigade, capture, china, combat, defence, economy, execution, gdp, george bush. us, gross domestic product, indian ocean, iraq, killed, naval, new york, rageh omaar, saddam hussein, soldiers, string of pearls, trillion, twin towers, world trade centre

Wednesday, August 11, 2010 By Abhijit

Singapore GDP higher than before recession

The Singapore economy has not only recovered from the recession but has grown bigger than it was before. The gross domestic product totalled S$72.6 billion (about $53.3 billion) in the second quarter of this year, considerably more than it was during the same period last year (S$61.1 billion) and the second quarter of 2008 (S$62.2 billion). That was before the recession, which began in October 2008. All the GDP figures are at 2005 market prices.

Manufacturing continues to play the biggest role in the economy followed by wholesale and retail trade, financial services and business services. See the next chart showing the performance of each industry.

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: business, economic survey, economy, financial, gdp, gross domestic product, industry, manufacturing, ministry, recession, retail, services, trade, wholesale

Monday, July 26, 2010 By Abhijit

Stronger Singdollar, slower growth ahead: IMF

The Singapore dollar is undervalued and likely to rise. For inflation is likely to accelerate and “further calibration” of the monetary policy may be needed, says the International Monetary Fund in its just released report on Singapore. The report, released after IMF executive board consultations with Singapore, is interesting in what it has to say about property prices.

But first look at the growth projections. The IMF expects the Singapore economy to grow 9.9 per cent this year, far less than the Singapore government's own estimate of 13 to 15 per cent growth. Here is Singapore's medium-term outlook from the IMF report. The figures from this year onwards are IMF forecasts.

Filed Under: Singapore Tagged With: consumption, economy, foreign workers, gdp, gross national savings, growth, IMF, immigration, International Monetary Fund, monetary policy, property, singapore dollar

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