The People’s Action Party’s vote has not dropped all that sharply if you look at the chart showing its polling numbers in earlier elections.
PAP's share of the vote
Yes, the 60.1 per cent vote for the PAP in the May 7 elections marks a new low for the party since independence, but not by much when you look at the election results since 1984.
The PAP won 64.8 per cent of the vote in 1984, 63.2 per cent in 1988, 61 per cent in 1991, 65 per cent in 1997 and a whopping 75.3 per cent in 2001 during Goh Chok Tong’s third and last term as prime minister.
The PAP vote dropped to 66.6 per cent in 2006 after Lee Hsien Loong became prime minister. Now it’s down to 60.1 per cent, but it’s a smaller drop than the nearly double-digit fall in 2006. In fact, it’s almost back to where it was in 1991, when it won 61 per cent of the vote.
That reminds me of the Blood, Sweat and Tears and Spinning Wheel.
This election makes history in other ways, with six opposition candidates elected to parliament – more than ever before. The previous highest was four, in 1991.
All six are from the opposition Workers’ Party, which won in Aljunied, defeating Foreign Minister George Yeo. This is the first time the opposition has won a Group Representation Constituency since these multimember wards were set up in 1988 to ensure Indians, Malays and other ethnic minorities were represented in parliament.
But the PAP still won 81 of the 87 elected seats in parliament. It has never lost as many seats before, but its polling numbers have fluctuated more sharply in the past.
The PAP came to power winning 54.1 per cent of the vote in 1959 when Singapore became a self-governing colony under British rule, but secured only 46.9 per cent in 1963 when it faced a stiff challenge from Barisan Sosialis, which took 37.1 per cent. That was the lowest point for the PAP, which bounced back after independence in 1965. It won a staggering 86.7 per cent in 1968, when it faced only the Workers’ Party, which took 13.2 per cent, and independents (13.3 per cent). The PAP vote dropped to 70.4 per cent in 1972 when the Workers’ Party won 24.5 per cent and the Barisan Sosialis, campaigning again, took 26.6 per cent. The PAP, however, won all the 65 seats.
The PAP won 74.1 per cent of the vote in 1976 and 77.7 per cent in 1980. Then came the big drop to 64.8 per cent in 1984 followed by one last spectacular performance in 2001, when it won 75.3 per cent. But that was unusual by then. The PAP’s polling figures since the 1980s have been usually stuck in the 60s.
Where it does better is the number of seats it wins. With 66.6 per cent of the vote, it still won 82 of the 84 seats in the 2006 elections under the first-past-the-post system.
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PAP popularity votes are generally in the 60′s. The exception in 2001 was achieved due to the 9/11 terrorist attack which caused voters to fled to safety.
Considering the national sentiments and high level of unhappiness, 60.1% should be considered an excellent result for the incumbent. It is quite clear that this unhappiness did not quite translate into votes against the PAP. There is quite a big number who still voted for the PAP despite being less than satisfied.
Going forward, I can’t see how the PAP will be able to achieve results in the high 60′s and beyond barring any unforeseen events such as 9/11, for several reasons.
1. The growing income gap has widen the profile of voters. The needs of upper strata of society and that of the lower strata are different. It would be harder to craft national policies that can cater to everyone needs. Unlike the 1960′s and 1970′s, the profile of voters are pretty homogenous, the rich-poor divide is not wide, national policies satisfying a wide spectrum of society can be crafted with less complication. Unhappiness over policies will increase and may be translate into votes against the govt.
2. Maturing electorates will demand their voices be heard in parliament. This will translate into votes for the opposition parties. It doesn’t matter whether it is the PAP or WP (should they become one in the future) who is the govt.
3. Information technology and social media has leveled the playing field as far as the control of the type messages the govt wants to be broadcasted (some labelled as propaganda). A well-run online campaign will not only win the minds of voters, it will also capture their heart. The leveling of this playing field works against the incumbent.
Yes, you are right, Yamasam.The PAP did exceptionally well in the 2001 elections as the country rallied together after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in America. Thanks.
You are right, a 6% drop is not particularly large. But this time around, all but one constituency were contested; in 2006, 7 GRCs were uncontested. I would assume that these 7 GRCs were uncontested because the opposition probably felt that their chance of winning in these areas was very low (perceived PAP strongholds such as the constituencies helmed by SM and MM – Marine Parade and Tanjong Pagar). Even the WP team contesting PM’s constituency Ang Mo Kio was candid enough to label itself the “suicide squad”.
So, if these GRCs were actually contested in 2006, we can assume the winning margin for the PAP would be higher than 66% (since the average would be pulled up by these results). Leaving aside the fact that constituency boundaries have changed, it would be reasonable to assume that the swing in PAP support is actually greater than what the 6% figure suggests.
You may be right, Ken. Thanks.