The next elections coming after a recession will break the trend in Singapore. Three of the past downturns struck just a year after a general election and one came in an election year.
Thank you, Paul, for pointing that out in your comment on my previous post.
There were elections in 1963, 1984, 1997 and 2001 — and the economy shrank in 1964, 1985, 1998 and 2001.
This is also the first time Singapore has suffered two bad years in a row, with the economy growing only 1.1 per cent in 2008 before shrinking 2.1 per cent in 2009.
All four previous downturns were preceded and followed by good years, according to Singapore Statistics records dating back to 1960.
When Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew was prime minister, the economy shrank 3.8 per cent in 1964, then grew 7.5 per cent in 1965 — and dipped 1.4 per cent in 1985 but gained 2.1 per cent in 1986.
When Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong was prime minister, the gross domestic product slipped 1.4 per cent in 1998 but rose 7.2 per cent in 1998 — and fell 2.4 per cent in 2001 but grew 4.1 per cent in 2002.
But two bad years in a row were inevitable this time.
The Wall Street meltdown — the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac crisis and the Lehman Brothers collapse — occurred in September 2008, dragging Singapore into a recession that ended only in the third quarter of 2009. It lasted a year but, because it struck in the middle of a year, its effect was felt over two years.
Now let's not forget the boom years under Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Singapore became a 200 billion Singapore dollar economy under him in 2006, when the gross domestic product rose to more than 214 billion Singapore dollars (more than $152 billion). The 2008 GDP was 233.5 billion Singapore dollars.
The government forecasts 3 to 5 per cent growth this year. And I am sure it is right. After all, it did say in October the economy would shrink by 2 to 2.5 per cent in 2009.
Back to those elections which preceded or came during a downturn.
According to the Singapore Elections website, the PAP won:
- 46.9 per cent of the votes and 37 of the 51 seats in 1963
- 64.8 per cent of the votes and 77 of the 79 seats in 1984
- 65 per cent of the votes and 81 of the 83 seats in 1997
- 75.3 per cent of the votes and 82 of the 84 seats in 2001.
Incidentally, the economy grew 9.9 per cent in 1963, 8.3 per cent in 1984, 8.3 per cent again in 1997 but dipped 2.4 per cent in 2001.
The PAP won 66.6 per cent of the votes and 82 of the 84 seats in 2006 when the economy grew 8.4 per cent. All the economic data from Statistics Singapore are based on 2000 market prices.
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