Singapore GDP up, but almost all other indicators down

Yes, the Singapore economy has come out of recession, but the better than expected growth in the second quarter may be "exceptional". So says Ravi Menon, Second Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Trade and Industry. Listen to him speaking on the ministry website.

As the official press release says, "Singapore's gross domestic product expanded by a seasonally adjusted 20.7 percent compared to the previous quarter", when it shrank 12.2 percent. So the economy is merely doing better than it did in the first three months of the year.

The press release points out how shaky the recovery is. It says:

This improvement was largely driven by the spike in output from the volatile biomedical manufacturing cluster and inventory re-stocking. Financial services was (sic) boosted by sentiment-sensitive segments such as stock market activities. It is uncertain if these can be sustained into the second half.

In fact, Singapore is not doing well at all by any measure if one looks at the full report on the Economic Survey of Singapore for the second quarter. Here are the highlights:

The economy contracted by 3.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2009, after a 9.5 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2009.
Manufacturing output fell by 2.4 per cent compared to the same quarter a year ago. Wholesale and retail trade also fell by 14 per cent. The construction sector rose by 19 per cent.
The services producing industries fell by 4.8 per cent, following a 5.1 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2009.
Total demand declined by 14 per cent, led mainly by the decline in external demand. Domestic demand also continued to decline.
Private consumption expenditure contracted by 3.7 per cent, weighing down on total domestic demand.
Employment contracted by 12,400 in the second quarter of 2009, double the 6,200 losses in the first quarter.
The overall unemployment rate stabilised at a seasonally adjusted 3.3 per cent in June 2009, unchanged from a quarter ago.
Among the resident labour force, the unemployment rate declined from 4.8 per cent in March 2009 to 4.6 per cent in June 2009, as more people deferred job
searches and pursued courses amidst the difficult job market.
An estimated 116,600 residents were unemployed in June 2009. The seasonally adjusted figure was 91,800.
Total trade in nominal terms declined by 27 per cent in the second quarter. In volume terms, total trade shrank by 16 per cent, following the 19 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.
Total exports continued to record a double-digit decline. Domestic exports declined at a slower 27 per cent, while re-exports registered a 24 per cent decrease
following last quarter’s 24 per cent decline.
The overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of 1 billion Singapore dollars in the second quarter of 2009, reversing from a deficit position of 3.6 billion Singapore dollars in the preceding quarter.
The capital account (net) balance fell by 5.9 billion Singapore dollars in the second quarter after plunging by 11.9 billion Singapore dollars in the first quarter.