One should have the audacity to hope, but is it realistic to expect the Singapore economy to grow despite the global economic slowdown? The Ministry of Trade and Industry thinks so though it keeps lowering expectations. This year's growth forecast was revised from 4 to 5 percent earlier this year to around 3 percent in October — and now a month later the estimate has been lowered to 2.5 percent. What has changed? The economy has shrunk 0.6 percent, more than expected, in the third quarter.
But the ministry is not giving up hope. It expects up to 2 percent growth or at the worst a 1 percent drop next year.
With Singapore's major trading partners in recession, how the economy can be expected to grow next year is a mystery.
Sum of optimism
But the Singapore economy could still end this year on a positive note, showing it has grown since last year, even if it does less well in the last quarter than it did last year. Here's why.
- The annual GDP last year 229,123 million Singapore dollars ($149,930 million) at 2000 market prices and 243,169 million Singapore dollars at current market prices.
- The GDP so far this year is 175,280 million Singapore dollars at 2000 market prices and 191,373 million Singapore dollars at current market prices.
- So to catch up with last year, the GDP in the last quarter has to be 53,843 million Singapore dollars at 2000 market prices or 51,796 million Singapore dollars at current market prices.
- That's less than the GDP for last year's last quarter, which was 58,539 million Singapore dollars at 2000 market prices and 64,162 million Singapore dollars at current market prices.
All figures are from the ministry's economic survey for the third quarter. Download the PDF from the ministry's website. The survey says: The economy expanded by 4.5 per cent in the first half of 2008 but overall growth slowed to 2.8 per cent if the third quarter is accounted for.
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